social media

The outcome of the 2024 US election wasn’t what I hoped for, nor what I predicted.

This is a personal reflection post on this event. It involves a political topic, though my goal isn’t to focus on discussing politics. Since the topic is so divisive, I expect you to disagree with some (or even most) of what I have to say.

My interest in the election picked up when Biden dropped out. I read the tea leaves more and more intensely, as the election date got closer. I knew the algorithms were feeding me content reinforced by my engagement behavior, but I felt I was seeking a broad enough range of views. I was feeling better and better, especially in the last 10 days – Trump’s MSG event was a disaster in my eyes, and anecdotal points like the Selzer Iowa poll / Ralston Nevada predictions improved the vibes.

“Election night” was “day” in Shanghai. By noon my heart had already sunk. I had my headphones on and ate lunch late to avoid the office chatter. Late afternoon, I opened a bottle of white wine (left over from last year’s office Christmas party) and finished it with an American co-worker who was in a similar mood.

For a few days I tried to tune out the news. I unsubscribed from a few sources – I wasn’t mad at them, I simply needed to unplug. Then, gradually, I started surveying the aftermath.

I’ll not attempt to comprehensively deconstruct the why and how of the outcome. Instead, I want to focus on what I felt most strongly: a mix of disappointment and disgust. I felt this when I saw some Democratic supporters lurch towards election denial conspiracies.¹ The sensation worsened when I came across a WeChat acquaintance & college alumnus who loudly proclaimed that “the truth is on X”, and among other things, this election proved we’ve been lied to for years by legacy media about Trump’s character.

I believe he is not the typical or median Trump supporter – they still have a grasp on his character, and decided to vote for him anyway. But he is still one outlier too many. It’s easy, or perhaps obvious, to say he’s deeply entrenched in a bubble. But – reflecting on my own mental journey the past few months – am I not in an algorithmically-driven bubble as well?

As an aside, one of the most interesting meta-analyses about bubbles and algorithms I’ve come across recently is the first few minutes of this interview:

The guest, Mark Galeotti, reflects on what is being asked of subject matter experts by social media (emphasis mine):

“We live in an era that is deeply intolerant of any kind of equivocation… We are being expected […] to have clarity in what is after all an exceedingly kind of complex world […] We are also in an environment in which there is a market for explainers, and how do you actually convey to someone that it’s worth listening to me, even though I don’t necessarily have the answer – when there’s someone else on the next YouTube channel or podcast that’s going to speak with absolute confidence and absolute clarity, and make the reality so much simpler and easier to grasp?”

The point is, we the audience have a tendency to seek empty calories – that dopamine hit of a YouTube thumbnail that confirms a particular bit of wishful thinking – and content creators happily “conspire” with the algorithms to provide them. I still have the awareness that it’s my lizard brain at work, but plenty of times I click on the video anyway. I don’t want to say this is a losing battle – but looking at global obesity trends and the gym & fitness industry, I guess I’m not optimistic about human nature.

I remember “post-truth” being widely discussed during the first Trump presidency. Well, TikTok was only released in late 2017, and has since upended social media worldwide. And then we’ve witnessed the early mania of generative AI. If post-truth was something we already struggled with in 2016, we are woefully ill-equipped now. And most of all, I worry about my kids. In a few years, they will be swept into this murky ocean of social media, and I don’t know how I can prepare them to have the critical thinking and emotional fortitude to avoid spiraling into a radicalized whirlpool.

I don’t have answers. But I guess acceptance of this reality is a start.